Taiwan’s exports in January likely fell for the fifth month in a row amid fears of a global recession, uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine, and the COVID situation in China impacting tech demand, according to a Reuters poll. Taiwan, a global hub for chip production and a key supplier to Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), is one of Asia’s leading exporters of technology goods. The trade data is seen as an important gauge of world demand for tech gadgets. Exports were estimated to have dropped 20% in January from a year earlier, a Reuters poll of 18 analysts showed on Monday, a faster rate than the 12.1% annual contraction seen in December. The export forecasts varied widely, projecting a contraction of between 12.2% and 30%. The variation reflected uncertainties over the global economy, supply chain disruptions due to COVID cases in China, and the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war. Taiwan’s finance ministry said last month that January exports could be down by 20%-24% from a year earlier. Separately, the consumer price index was expected to have been 2.69% higher in January than a year earlier, rising slower than the 2.71% annual rate seen in December, according to the poll. The trade data will be released on Tuesday followed by the inflation data on Thursday. (Poll compiled by Madhumita Gokhale and Carol Lee; Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
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